I’ll mostly be off-line for the next few weeks, getting to know my new little daughter.

Counterinsurgency guru David Kilcullen says President Obama needs to get on with it, and go all-in by deciding to send the full 40,000 extra troops to Afghanistan. And if Obama does decide to stop by Kabul while he’s on that side of the world, Kilcullen says he might to tell Hamid Karzai:

“Our way out is to go to Karzai and say ‘We are done here’. We will be leaving in two to five years. If you do not want to be left hanging from a lamppost, like Najibullah [the former Afghan president hanged in Kabul in 1996 when the Taliban took control], this is what you need to do. I think that would work,” Kilcullen said.

NY Daily News reporter scored a brief – but big – interview this week when he ran into Obama at Arlington National Cemetary.

“What’s your name?” a somber President asked as he extended his hand.

“James Meek, sir,” I replied, struggling to pull off my wool glove and pull my hood back from my head. “I’m here visiting a friend, Pfc. David H. Sharrett II, who was killed in Iraq last year.”

(via Tom Ricks)

Bob Gates isn’t happy about the leaks that are fueling the public debate on Afghanistan. And according to the FT, they indicate a stark rift between key US officials:

One senior Nato official told the Financial Times: “I think it’s safe to say that Ambassador Eikenberry and Stanley McChrystal will not be exchanging Christmas cards this year.”

Some smart speculation here from Stephen Walt on the Eikenberry cables and where Obama’s at in the debate:

First, I think it’s a sign that deep down, Obama knows he has no good options. He’s figured out that the stakes aren’t as great as he may have once thought, that the commitment is potentially endless, that we have no local partner for the kind of centralized, “state-building” approach that remains at the heart of U.S. strategy, and that going all in will commit him to a war we won’t win. No wonder he keeps looking for an alternative.

And finally, confirmation from the White House that what the president is really looking for is a way out of Afghanistan.

The Obama administration is sending special envoy Stephen Bosworth to talk with the North Koreans before the end of the year. At the same time, the administration appears to be going after the DPRK’s illicit funds – according to South Korean paper Chosun Ilbo:

South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities believe that North Korea recently earned a lot of foreign currency by smuggling ivory from Africa and distributing fake Viagra as well as selling drugs and circulating counterfeit dollars.

In the midst of the Afghanistan wait, comes an apparent vote of no confidence from US Ambassador in Kabul, Karl Eikenberry. 

In his communications with Washington, Eikenberry has expressed deep reservations about Karzai’s erratic behavior and Afghan government corruption, particularly in the senior ranks of the Karzai government, said U.S. officials familiar with the cables. Since Karzai was officially declared re-elected last week, U.S. diplomats have seen little sign that the Afghan president plans to address the problems of corruption they have raised repeatedly with him.

There’s no clean, clear line connecting them, but the horrific shooting at Fort Hood and the Washington debate over sending more troops to Afghanistan are mixed up in the same soup of anxiety that the country’s feeling right now about war, sacrifice and terrorism. My colleague Jeb Sharp got into this with her radio story yesterday.

Today, the Pew Research Center reports it has found that US support for the way Obama is handling the war is slipping:

Currently, only 36% of Americans say they approve of how Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan, compared with 49% who disapprove. In July, more people approved (47%) than disapproved (33%) of his handling of the issue.

The critics who say Obama is “dithering” seem to be winning the political argument for now.

The N.Y. Mets have stepped into it. (via Goldblog)

Noah Shachtman on the right-wing nut job (embraced by several GOP congress members) calling for an anti-Muslim backlash. Is Sarah Palin still looking for a foreign policy advisor?

Is something going to give here? I have to wonder when peace process-optimist, Tom Friedman says it’s time for the Obama administration to bail on the Israelis and Palestinians for now.

Joe Klein says it’s time for the Obama administration to play some hard ball with the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu:

The Obama Administration may have to be a bit less “grandiose” in dealing with Netanyahu’s irredentist government. It should start by putting a hold on all economic and military aid to Israel; the aid should not be discontinued, just held, for a nice long review until the Netanyahu government comes to understand that Jerusalem must be the capital of both Israel and Palestine, and that if you actually want peace, you don’t build illegal settlement colonies in the Palestinian capital.

But it’s not going to happen, says Stephen Walt. Because Congress won’t let it happen. Walt answers the question I put to a few Middle East experts for a radio story that ran on Monday. Here’s Walt:

The sun is now setting on the “two-state solution” — if it is not already well below the horizon — and pretty soon everyone will have to admit that they are sitting around in the dark and pretending they see daylight.